Kia ora e te whānau,

Hope this email finds you all safe and well.

I know this is a lot of information, but despite the rain that has fallen these past couple of weeks, we are still in the grips of a “meteorological drought”.

Last month we shared some information about the developing El Niño weather pattern and what it could mean for Taitokerau over the coming spring and summer.

Since then, we’ve had some welcome rain across parts of Northland. While that’s been good news for many whānau, marae and communities, it’s important to remember that one or two rain events don’t necessarily remove the risk of a dry summer.

Current forecasts are still indicate a strong El Niño pattern, bringing an increased likelihood of hotter temperatures, drier conditions, water shortages and a higher risk of wildfires across our rohe.

These are the median rainfall totals during 2009-2019-2026 in August, September and October. They show we are drier than the last droughts in 2009, 2019-20 from the NRC hydrology Team.

They show we are in a much drier space than our previous droughts 2009 and 2019. In 2019-20 we had normal rainfall during the winter period, this year we have had a drier than average winter and compared to 2025 we have had half as much rain.

These are the median river flows in comparison to long term flow percentiles: Shows a number of river levels well below average already.

Now is a good time to continue those conversations at home and within your community about what being prepared looks like for your whānau.

Some things to think about include:

• How secure is your water supply if dry conditions continue?
• Do you have enough drinking water stored for your household?
• Is your property prepared for an increased fire risk?
• Have you checked emergency supplies such as torches, radios, medications and first aid kits?
• Do you have a plan for supporting tamariki, kaumātua and whānau members who may be more vulnerable during periods of heat?
• Do you know how you would stay connected if power, phone or internet services were disrupted?

One of the greatest strengths we have in Taitokerau is how communities come together to support one another. Checking in on neighbours, staying connected with whānau, and sharing information can make a real difference during challenging conditions.

(Many thanks to Nyze Manuel for the graphics above)

We will continue to share updates throughout the season and let you know if there are any significant changes to the outlook.

If you have any questions, concerns, or would like to kōrero about preparedness in your community, please feel free to get in touch.

Useful links:

NRC Drought Hub: https://www.nrc.govt.nz/environment/drought/

Earth Sciences New Zealand: niwa.co.nz

FENZ: fireandemergency.nz

Northland Emergency Management: civildefence.govt.nz

Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora: healthnz.govt.nz

Northland Emergency Management: Facebook page

Also attached is the Nationwide updated Info from NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency)

Kia Mataara, Kia Takatū

Kia noho haumaru

Papanui Polamalu

Taitokerau Emergency Management Advisor – Māori Relationships
Te Kaunihera ā rohe o Te Taitokerau: Northland Regional Council

 “He manawa toitū, he ara ka kitea” – With an enduring spirit, a pathway will be found
M 027 702 2794 | DDI 09 470 1200 | E papanuip@nrc.govt.nz

 

 

P 0800 002 004  »  W www.nrc.govt.nz